What Worked Australia - 23 Dec 2016 - Size the flavour for the end of the year

What Worked – Size came in with a strong IC this week, largely driven by a sell-off in the smaller end of the market rather than a buy into the larger cap names. OFX Group (OFX, -5.7%), Virtus Health (VRT, -1.5%) and Japara Health (JHC, -4.8%) all taking a hit this week, while their larger brethren largely stayed inline with the market.

The end of year momentum sell-off slowed this week, with the mid-term momentum signals still felling the sting, but the longer term stabilizing. In the 3-month momentum quintiles, there was a sell-off in the worst performing names, but the IC was largely driven by a reversal in the best performers over the last 3 months. Among the best performers over the last 3 months that took a hit this week were Galaxy Resources (GXY, -3.9%), SIMS Metal Management (SGM, -3.3%) and Origin Energy (ORG, -1.5%).

Who Moved – 12 names managed to move on very strong volumes this week. Finishing the week in the black included Mayne Pharma (MYX, +6.2%), Independence Group (IGO, +3.5%) and Iron Mountain (INM, +3.4%), while Sydney Airport (SYD, -6.4%), Flexigroup Limited (FXL, -5.6%) and Seven West Media (SWM, -1.8%) all finished up lower.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 22 Dec 2016 - Value and Beta were hurt again this week as Quality names benefited

What Worked – Value, particularly PBR, did not do well for the second week in a row. Low PBR names that were hurt were Tokyo Electric Power (9501) down 7%, Kobe Steel (5406) down 6% and Isetan Mitsukoshi Holdings (3099) down 6%. On the positive side, last week’s rotation into growth and quality names continued this week.

Low Debt to Equity names that did well were KONAMI (9766) up 9%, Capcom (9697) up 7% and NEXON (3659) up 6%. Growth names that did well were Kakaku.com (2371) up 4% and Shionogi (4507) up 4%. As with Value, high Beta names did not do well for the second week in a row. Nintendo (7974) was down 11%, Olympus (7733) was down 10% and TADANO (6395) was down 6%. There was also a slight selloff in names with a high percent in Institutional Investors.

Who Moved – 51 names moved on volume this week.  The moves were spread pretty much evenly across the different sectors. On the positive side, Dentsu was up 14%, Taiyo Yuden was up 14% and Kagome (2811) was up 11%, all on strong volume. On the other side, SMC (6273) was down 10%, ACOM (8572) was down 9% and Komatsu (6301) was down 5%.

Summary

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What Worked Asia - 16 Dec 2016 - Size and Beta were hurt across the region

What Worked – China saw a good sell off in Size and high Beta names and a slight move into Quality. China Modern Dairy and China Vanke are both down 10% this week. In Hong Kong there was also a slight selloff in high Beta names. China Innovative Finance is down 14% and Geely Automobile Holdings is down 12%. India also saw a slight selloff in Size and Beta names. Edelweiss Financial Services is down 12% and Indiabulls Housing Finance is down 9%.

As with Japan, South Korea had a good selloff in Value and Large-cap names. Low PBR names that were hurt this week in South Korea were POSCO down 5% and Young Poong Corp down 4%. In Taiwan, low PBR names did well and large-cap names were hurt. Waisin Lihwa Corp was down 4% and Evergreen Marine was down 3%. Value did very well this week in Indonesia, particularly low PE names. Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional is up 6% and Indo Tambangraya Megah is up 6%.

Who Moved 128 names moved on volume this week. A good number of the names were in Taiwan, Hong Kong and China. At the sector level, volume dominated in the Financial Sector. On the positive side, CIMB Thai Bank was up 64%, Great New Wave Coming was up 44% and Da Ming International Holdings was up 26%. All on strong volume. On the other side, Golden Energy & Resources was down 36%, Kong Sun Holdings was down 21% and Sheng Siong Group was down 8%.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 16 Dec 2016 - Beta and Value took a hit after almost 3 months of strong performance

What Worked – As you know all good things come to an end and after a strong 3-month run, Value stopped working this week. Value, particularly low PBR names did not do well this week. The last time PBR did not work was in the last week of September. Low PBR names that underperformed were Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713) down 6% and Nippon Yusen Kabushiki Kaisha (9101) down 4%. However, high Beta names did a lot worse than Value this week.

High Beta names have not done this poorly since the beginning of September.  High Beta names that underperformed were Nintendo (7974) down 10%, Aiful (8515) down 6% and IHI Corp (7013) down 6%. Names up over the last month were also hurt this week. 1-month momentum names that were down were Itochu Corp (8001) down 4% and DIC (4631) down 4%. Quality was the only factor to stand out this week. High ROIC name did the best. Dentsu (4324) was up 14% and Taiyo Yuden (6976) was up also up 14%.

Who Moved – 51 names moved on volume this week.  The moves were spread pretty much evenly across the different sectors. On the positive side, Dentsu was up 14%, Taiyo Yuden was up 14% and Kagome (2811) was up 11%, all on strong volume. On the other side, SMC (6273) was down 10%, ACOM (8572) was down 9% and Komatsu (6301) was down 5%.

Summary

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What Worked Australia - 16 Dec 2016 - Profit taking into the end of the year

What Worked – Certainly not momentum this week. While last week saw a string selloff in momentum, in particular 12 month momentum, as profit taking into the end of the calendar year continues. While there was a slight uptick in the laggard names for the year, the real movements were in names that were up for the year. The metals and mining sector took a lot of the punches this week, with names like Resolute Mining (RSG, -13.3%), South32 Ltd (S32, +6.5%) and Orocobre (ORE, -9.8%) amongst the worst affected. It was not limited to that sector, and a2 Milk (A2M, -14.1%), Infinigen Energy (IFN, -3.5%) and Seven Group Holdings (SVW, -4.9%) also down this week.

Dividend Yield posted good results this week, largely on the back of the momentum sell-off.  Cromwell Property Group (CMW, +2.1%), Seven West Media (SWM, +6.1%) and Growthpoint Properties (GOZ, +3.2%) all posting positive returns for the week yet remaining amongst the highest yielding names in the index.

Who Moved – 24 names managed to move on higher than normal volumes this week, finishing up the year on a positive note volume wise. Seven West Media (SWM, +6.1%), Asaleo Care Limited (AHY, +4.5%) and AusNet Services (AST, +3.8%) all finishing the week higher on strong volume, while SKY Network Television (SKT, -15.3%), Santos Limited (STO, -8.4%) and Iron Mountain (INM, -7.9%) all finished the week lower

Summary

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What Worked Asia - 02 Dec 2016 - Slight Selloff in momentum names in HK / China

What Worked –Names up over the last year in Hong Kong and China were down this week. In China, Sunny Optical Technology was down 8% and Yanzhou Coal Mining was down 8%. In Hong Kong, Crown International was down 11% and China High Speed Transmission Equipment Group was down 12%. In Taiwan low PBR names and to a lesser degree low PE names did well with week. Low PBR names that outperformed were China Petrochemical Development up 9% and China Motor up 7%.

In Singapore there was a slight move into Size and high Beta names. Large-cap names that did well were Keppel Corp up 10% and Fortune Real Estate up 6%. In India, names down over the last month are up this week. JM Financial is up 10% and Eicher Motors is up 14%. In Malaysia names with positive EPS momentum did well this week and in the Philippines low PBR names and high Sales Growth names did well this week. In South Korea there was a slight move into value and positive revision names.

Who Moved – 212 names moved on volume this week. A good portion of the volume spikes came in the Finance Sector. At the country level, more than half of the spikes came in Hong Kong, China and Taiwan. On the positive side, Huarong International Financial Holdings is up 42%, Balkrishna Industries is up 35% and Adani Power Limited is up 20%. On the other side, Glorious Property Holding is down 33%, CT Environmental Group is down 23% and China Innovative Finance is down 23%.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 02 Dec 2016 - Value and High Beta names continue to do well since the beginning of October

What Worked  Value names did really well this week and have actually done well since the end of September. This week low PBR names dominated with an almost 50% IC.  A good portion of the low PBR names that did well were in the Bank Sector. Low PBR names that did well were Nomura Holdings (8604) up 12%, Iyo (8385) up 10% and Idemitsu Kosan (5019) up 9%.

Low PE names also did well this week. Low PE names that moved were TADANO (6395) up 10%, Resona Holdings (8308) up 10% and Concordia Financial Group (7186) up 9%. Quality names however continue to underperform. High ROIC names have not done well since the beginning of October. High ROIC names that were down were MonotaRo (3064) down 9%, M3 (2413) down 9% and Hitachi High-Technology (8036) down 8%. As with Value, high Beta names did well this week and have done well since the beginning of October. Panasonic (6752) is up 9% and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (8306) is up 10%.

Who Moved – 67 names moved on volume this week. A pretty good number for Japan. Only 14 of those names were down this week. On the positive side, Sumitomo Bakelite (4203) was up 11%, Iyo Bank (8385) was up 10% and Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821) was up 8%. On the other side, Santen Pharmaceutical (4536) was down 9%, Terumo Corp (4543) was down 4% and Misumi Group (9962) was down 5%.

Summary

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What Worked Australia - 02 Dec 2016 - Earnings Revisions continue their outstanding run

What Worked – 1 Month Earnings Revisions have had a run of positive (albeit weak in all but 3 weeks) since the end of September; and this week was no different. Earnings Revisions saw its strongest week since May this week against the backdrop of an all but flat market. Santos (STO, +4.8%), Fortescue Metals (FMG, +2.6%) and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL, +5.0%) are among those names with the highest FY1 EPS Revisions over the last month and all giving good returns for the week.

PER also had a good week this week, the first strong showing since the abysmal week at the start of November.  Seven West Media (SWM, +5.1%), Flexigroup (FXL, +3.5%) and Metcash Limited (MTS, +6.3%) all rebounding this week, and still on the cheaper side of the market.

Who Moved – 11 nA good week for volumes as the year end looms. 22 names from the 200 moved on higher than normal volumes this week. The best of the positive movers included Origin Energy (ORG, +6.4%), Metcash Limited (MTS, +6.3%) and IOOF Holdings (IFL, +5.4%). On the flip side, Vocus Communications (VOC, -26.6%), Rio Tinto (RIO, -5.0%) and Amcor Limited (AMC, -4.0%) all finished up weaker.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 25 Nov 2016 - Value looking strong, 12M momentum weaker

What Worked – Japan Value continues to perform this week making it three from three weeks with strongly positive returns. The last run with similar ICs was back in April/May 2015, and unfortunately did not end pretty for value in the following couple of months. Inexpensive names on a forward PER basis that did well this week included Haseko Corp (1808, +5.2%), Itochu (8001, +3.1%) and Marubeni (8002, +3.1%), with Itochu and Marubeni also being boosted by a weakening JPY.  More expensive names taking a hit this week included Eisai (4523, -5.5%), Nippon Paint (4612, -2.3%) and Recruit Holdings (6098, -1.2%).

12 Month momentum also took a hit this week, likely being pushed lower by the continued swing into Value. DeNA (2432, -2.8%), Lion Corp (4912, -1.9%) and ITO EN (2593, -2.0%) amongst the best performers over the last year that did not fare well this week. At the same time, some of the year’s biggest losers saw a bounce this week, including Mitsubishi Motors (7211, +5.6%), Casio Computer (6952, +10.8%) and Sanrio (8136, +6.1%).

Who Moved – Not a lot moving on volume this week with only 8 names from TOPIX 500 managing to move on significantly higher than normal volumes. On the positive side, Pola Orbis Holdings (4927, +6.3%), Chiyoda Corp (6366, +2.7%) and Medipal Holdings (7459, +1.5%) moved higher on strong volume, while Nabtesco (6268, -4.0%), Konami Holdings (9766, -1.7%) and OBIC (4684, -1.2%) amongst those finishing the week lower.

Summary

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What Worked Australia - 25 Nov 2016 - Dull week for factors, great for the index

What Worked – A pretty dull week in terms of factor direction in the Australian market this week. Beta was the best performing factor, and maintains its position in the top ranked factors over the last 3 months. High Beta names ticked up making up losses from the previous week, and largely involved the miners. Santos Limited (STO, +7.5%), Whitehaven Coal (WHC, +9.0%) and South32 Limited (S32, +10.5%) all benefitting, while Fisher & Paykel health (FPH, -4.9%), Newcrest Mining (NCM, -3.9%) and Trade Me Group (TME, -3.0%) all took a hit.

ROIC did not perform well at all this week with the switch into Beta, with low return names like NewsCorp (NWS, -0.8%), AusNet Services (AST, -0.3%) and Boral Limited (BLD, -12.9%) all finishing the week weaker.

Who Moved – 11 names moved this week on significantly higher than normal volumes. Boral (BLD, -12.9%), iSentia Group (ISD, -6.4%) and Automotive Holdings Group (AHG, -5.4%) all finishing the week lower, while a2 Milk (A2M, +11.4%), Technology One (TNE, +8.0%) and IPH Limited (IPH, +6.7%) all finished up higher than the index.

Summary

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