What Worked Australia - 02 Dec 2016 - Earnings Revisions continue their outstanding run

What Worked – 1 Month Earnings Revisions have had a run of positive (albeit weak in all but 3 weeks) since the end of September; and this week was no different. Earnings Revisions saw its strongest week since May this week against the backdrop of an all but flat market. Santos (STO, +4.8%), Fortescue Metals (FMG, +2.6%) and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL, +5.0%) are among those names with the highest FY1 EPS Revisions over the last month and all giving good returns for the week.

PER also had a good week this week, the first strong showing since the abysmal week at the start of November.  Seven West Media (SWM, +5.1%), Flexigroup (FXL, +3.5%) and Metcash Limited (MTS, +6.3%) all rebounding this week, and still on the cheaper side of the market.

Who Moved – 11 nA good week for volumes as the year end looms. 22 names from the 200 moved on higher than normal volumes this week. The best of the positive movers included Origin Energy (ORG, +6.4%), Metcash Limited (MTS, +6.3%) and IOOF Holdings (IFL, +5.4%). On the flip side, Vocus Communications (VOC, -26.6%), Rio Tinto (RIO, -5.0%) and Amcor Limited (AMC, -4.0%) all finished up weaker.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 25 Nov 2016 - Value looking strong, 12M momentum weaker

What Worked – Japan Value continues to perform this week making it three from three weeks with strongly positive returns. The last run with similar ICs was back in April/May 2015, and unfortunately did not end pretty for value in the following couple of months. Inexpensive names on a forward PER basis that did well this week included Haseko Corp (1808, +5.2%), Itochu (8001, +3.1%) and Marubeni (8002, +3.1%), with Itochu and Marubeni also being boosted by a weakening JPY.  More expensive names taking a hit this week included Eisai (4523, -5.5%), Nippon Paint (4612, -2.3%) and Recruit Holdings (6098, -1.2%).

12 Month momentum also took a hit this week, likely being pushed lower by the continued swing into Value. DeNA (2432, -2.8%), Lion Corp (4912, -1.9%) and ITO EN (2593, -2.0%) amongst the best performers over the last year that did not fare well this week. At the same time, some of the year’s biggest losers saw a bounce this week, including Mitsubishi Motors (7211, +5.6%), Casio Computer (6952, +10.8%) and Sanrio (8136, +6.1%).

Who Moved – Not a lot moving on volume this week with only 8 names from TOPIX 500 managing to move on significantly higher than normal volumes. On the positive side, Pola Orbis Holdings (4927, +6.3%), Chiyoda Corp (6366, +2.7%) and Medipal Holdings (7459, +1.5%) moved higher on strong volume, while Nabtesco (6268, -4.0%), Konami Holdings (9766, -1.7%) and OBIC (4684, -1.2%) amongst those finishing the week lower.

Summary

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What Worked Australia - 25 Nov 2016 - Dull week for factors, great for the index

What Worked – A pretty dull week in terms of factor direction in the Australian market this week. Beta was the best performing factor, and maintains its position in the top ranked factors over the last 3 months. High Beta names ticked up making up losses from the previous week, and largely involved the miners. Santos Limited (STO, +7.5%), Whitehaven Coal (WHC, +9.0%) and South32 Limited (S32, +10.5%) all benefitting, while Fisher & Paykel health (FPH, -4.9%), Newcrest Mining (NCM, -3.9%) and Trade Me Group (TME, -3.0%) all took a hit.

ROIC did not perform well at all this week with the switch into Beta, with low return names like NewsCorp (NWS, -0.8%), AusNet Services (AST, -0.3%) and Boral Limited (BLD, -12.9%) all finishing the week weaker.

Who Moved – 11 names moved this week on significantly higher than normal volumes. Boral (BLD, -12.9%), iSentia Group (ISD, -6.4%) and Automotive Holdings Group (AHG, -5.4%) all finishing the week lower, while a2 Milk (A2M, +11.4%), Technology One (TNE, +8.0%) and IPH Limited (IPH, +6.7%) all finished up higher than the index.

Summary

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What Worked Asia - 18 Nov 2016 - Each Market kind of moved in its own direction this week

What Worked – In China names up over the last month went down this week. Jiangxi Copper Company is down 9% and Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable is down 10%. Nothing really stood out in Hong Kong. In South Korea, Value, particularly PBR, did well this week. Low PBR names that were up were Mirae Asset Life Insurance up 15% and Hanjin Kal up 15%.

In India, high dividend yield names did well however there was a good selloff in high Beta names.  High Beta names that were hurt in India were Godfrey Phillips down 21% and JM Financial Limited down 18%. In the Philippines there was a move into large-cap names this week. DMCI Holding was up 11% and Semirara Mining & Power was up 8%. In Singapore, large-cap names and name with positive EPS revisions did well this week. SATS is up 4% and Genting Singapore is up 6%. In Indonesia there was a huge sell off in high Beta names.

Who Moved – 284 names moved on volume this week. A good portion of the volume spikes came in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. At the sector level, Finance and Producer Manufacturing sectors picked up a good number of the volume spikes. On the positive side, HengTen Networks Group is up 31%, China International Marine is up 24% and GlobalWafers Co is up 22%. On the other side, Daewoo Engineering & Construction is down 21%, PT Indo Tambangraya Megah is down 18% and PC Jeweller is down 17%.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 18 Nov 2016 - Value and high Beta names continued to do well this week

What Worked – Value and Beta continued to dominate this week. Low PE and PBR names continued to do well as Growth names continued to do poorly. The last time low PBR names really did not do well was in the end of September. High Growth names have only done well once since the beginning of October. Low PBR names that did well this week were Hokuhoku Financial (8377) up 15%, Unipres Corp (5949) up 12% and Taiyo Yuden (6976) up 13%.

High Beta names that outperformed this week were DMG MORI (6141) up 24%, Mazda Motors (7261) up 16% and Fuji Heavy Industries (7270) up 14%. Looking at momentum, names down over the last 12 months did well this week. NGK Insulators (5333) is up 12%, Unipres Corp is up 12% and Citizen Watch (7762) is up 12%. High Growth names that did not do well were Penta-Ocean Construction down 9%, Dentsu (4324) down 4% and Nippon Shinyaku (4516) down 3%.

Who Moved – Huge number of names moved on volume this week. 127 names out of 500 moved on volume and of those 106 names moved up on volume. On the positive side, DMG Mori (6141) is up 24%, Mazda Motors (7261) is up 16% and Hokuhoku Financial (8377) is up 15% on strong volume. On the other side, Rohto Pharmaceutical (4527) is down 13%, Penta-Ocean Construction (1893) is down 9% and Toyo Tire & Rubber is down 8%.

Summary

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What Worked Australia - 18 Nov 2016 - High Dividend Yield and Large Cap names did well this week

What Worked – This week was all about high Dividend yield and Large cap names. High dividend yield names that did well this week were BT Investment Management up 11%, Asaleo Care up 8% and James Hardie Industries up 6%.

Growth names and names up over the last 12 months did not do well this week. Names up over the last year that went down this week were Saracen Mineral Holdings down 12%, Resolute Mining down 12% and Whitehaven Coal down 11%. Growth names that were also hurt were Aconex down 21%, Evolution Mining down 11% and Nextdc Limited down 9%.

Who Moved – 31 names moved on volume this week. On the positive side, BT Investment Management is up 11%, Transurban Group is up 5% and Iron Mountain Inc is up 4% on strong volume. Names mentioned above also moved on volume. On the other side, iSentia Group is down 29%, Aconex is down 21% and Whitehaven Coal Limited is down 11%. All down on strong volume.

Summary

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What Worked Asia - 11 Nov 2016 - Overall low PBR names did well and high ROE names were hurt this week

What Worked – In China there was a slight move away from Value and into high Beta and Momentum names. Jiangxi Copper Company was up 35% and Zoomlion Heavy Industry was up 18%. High Dividend names (particularly in the Finance Sector) were hurt this week as Hong Kong also saw a move into higher Beta names. Kerry Properties was down 11% and Cheung Kong Properties was down 10%. Beta and Value names did well in Singapore this week. Noble Group was up 15% and Yangzjiang Shipbuilding was up 8%.

Value also did well and Quality was hurt in India this week.  Indian Bank was up 23% and Vijaya Bank was up 24%. A lot of the low PE names in India that did well were concentrated in the Finance Sector. In Thailand there was a good selloff in Quality and High Dividend yield names and a slight move into large cap names. True Corp was up 9% and Energy Absolute Public was up 4%. In the Philippines, there was a good selloff in large cap and high Beta names. Globe Telecom was down 14% and GT Capital was down 9%.

Who Moved – 213 names moved on volume this week. Approx. 25% of the spikes came in the Finance Sector. On the positive side, Evergrande Health was up 37%, U City Public was up 33% and Jiangxi Copper Company was up 35%. On the other side, Coolpad Group was down 24%, Tung Thih Electronics was down 16% and Youngone was down 17%.

Summary

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What Worked Japan - 11 Nov 2016 - Crazy week but in the end Beta and Value dominated

What Worked – Despite the intraweek rollercoaster, Value and high Beta names did very well this week. Without a doubt the US Presidential Election really messed up daily trading patterns. However at the end of the week Value and particularly high Beta names were the winners. Beta came in with a crazy high 48% IC this week. High Beta names that did well were Dai-Ichi Life (8750) up 17%, Taiheiyo Cement (5233) up 18% and Mitsubishi UFJ (8306) up 16%.

Low PBR names also ended up doing very well this week. T&D Holdings (8795) was up 15%, Mitsubishi Materials (5711) was up 16% and Sumitomo Metal Mining (5713) was up 14%. Quality, particularly high ROE names, were hurt this week. COLOPL (3668) was down 33% and Meiji Holdings (2269) was down 16%. There was also a good selloff in names that were up over the last year. Morinaga (2201) was down 11%, Nichirei (2871) was down 10% and MEGMILK SNOW (2270) was down 9%.

Who Moved – There was no lack of volume this week. 180 out of 500 names in the TOPIX 500 moved on volume. On the positive side, Taiheiyo Cement was up 18%, Shinsei Bank (8303) was up 13% and Sumitomo Mitsui Construction (1821) is up 12%. On the other side, Meiji Holdings (2269) was down 16%, Square Enix was down 15% and Ezaki Glico (2206) was down 15%. Also please note that most of the names mentioned in the first paragraph also moved on strong volume.

Summary

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What Worked Australia - 11 Nov 2016 - Beta comes up Trumps

What Worked – Yes, pun intended. Beta ran this week with high Beta names coming off a two-week losing streak and hitting an 18-month high on an excess return basis. Whitehaven Coal (WHC, +3.3%), Santos Limited (STO, +6.2%) and Worleyparsons (WOR, +8.5%) all beating the index this week, while their low beta brethren such as Regis Resources (RRL, -6.0%), St. Barbara *SBM, -3.9%) and Saracen Mineral Holdings (SAR, -3.0%) all finished weaker.

Value in all its guises was also hit hard this week, with more expensive names posting great returns. Aconex (ACX, +12.2%), NextDC (NXT, +8.5%) and Western Areas Limited (WSA, +34.2%) all finishing the week more expensive, while Seven West Media (SW#M, -0.7%), Resolute Mining (RSG, -3.1%) and Nine Entertainment (NEC, -2.1%) all finished the week looking a little cheaper…

Who Moved – The biggest week in a long time for names moving on volume, with the vast majority of them finishing the week higher. 32 names moved on significantly higher than normal volumes this week, with Western Areas (WSA, +34.2%), SIMS Metal (SGM, +20.9%) and Independence Group (IGO, +20.2%) all finishing the week with great returns, while Caltex Australia (CTX, -3.0%), Evolution Mining (EVN, -2.4%) and Premier Investments (PMV, -1.0%) all finished the week softer on strong volume.

Summary

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What Worked Asia - 28 Oct 2016 - This week was one of those weeks when nothing really stands out

What Worked – In China nothing really happened in Value, but there was a good selloff in Quality, particularly high ROIC names. High ROIC names that went down were Koradior Holdings down 15% and Great Wall Motors down 13%. In Hong Kong, Value did slightly better but the real outperformance came in names with positive EPS revisions. China South City Holdings is up 10% and China Overseas Grand Oceans is up 7%.

Singapore saw a move into Quality and away from large cap names. Delfi Limited is up 8% and Super Group is up 7%. In South Korea there was a slight selloff in high beta names, but nothing really stood out after the strong performance in Value last week. There was a huge selloff in high Beta names in the Philippines this week. GT Capital Holdings is down 8% and JG Summit Holdings is down 4%. Nothing stood out in India this week. Huge reversal in momentum names in Malaysia. YTL Corp is down 8% and UOA Development is down 6%.

Who Moved – 131 names moved on volume this week. A lot of the volume spikes came in Taiwan, South Korea and India. On the positive side, Bumi Resources is up 46%, Shun Cheong Holdings is up 32% and Golden Energy Mines is up 25%. On the other side, COSMAX is down 17%, Great Wall Motors is down 13% and Belle International Holdings is down 13%.

Summary

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