What Worked Japan - 29 Jul 2016 - Value and Beta bounced back this week

What Worked – After a super huge week two weeks ago and then a reversal last week, Value did well again, particularly PE. Low PE names that did well were Zeon Corp (4205) up 16%, Alps Electric (6770) up 15% and NTN Corp (6472) up 10%.  High Beta names acted the same. Two weeks ago high Beta names were super strong, there was a slight selloff last week and then they did well again this week. Tokai Rika (6995) is up 21%, Zeon Corp (4205) is up 16% and SUMCO (3436) is up 13%.

On the other side, there was a slight selloff in size this week. COLOPL (3668) was down 21%, KOMERI (8218) was down 12% and Capom (9697) was down 12%. There was also a selloff in names that were up over the last 12 months. M3 (2413) is down 12% and ONO Pharma is down 8%.

Who Moved – 27 names moved on volume this week. On the positive side, Shin-Etsu Chemical was up 13%, Nidec (6594) is up 10% and Advantest (6857) is up 11%. On the other side, Nintendo (7974) is down 25%, KOMERI (8218) is down 12% and Canon Marketing Japan (8060) is down 10%. All on strong volume. 

Summary

PDF Report available here: Download

 


What Worked Asia - 15 Jul 2016 - Size and Value domintated in Asia this week

What Worked – In China it was all about Size this week and to a lesser degree Value. ANTA Sports Products (2020 HK) was up 17% and China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK) was up 13%. Large-cap names also did well in Hong Kong this week and growth names were hurt. Haier Electronics Group (1169 HK) was up 18% and Johnson Electric Holdings (207 HK) was up 12%. Singapore was all about Size and Beta this week. Beta has been one of the strongest factors in the last 6 months in Singapore. Silverlake Axis (SILV SP) was up 7% and Yoma Strategic Holdings (YOMA SP) was up 6%.

South Korea was all about Value, particularly FY1 PE. Kolon (002020 KS) was up 14% and Young Poong (000670 KS) was up 16%. In Taiwan it was also all about Size and to a lesser degree Value. Growth and Beta dominated in the Philippines and in Indonesia high Beta and high Dividend Yield names did well this week.  Vale Indonesia (INCO LJ) was up 29% and Semen Baturaja (SMBR LJ) was up 21%.

Who Moved –  Lot of names moved on volume this week. 211 to be specific. Thailand, Taiwan and India made up a good portion of the volume spikes. At the sector level, Finance and Non-Energy Minerals made up a good number of the volume spikes. On the positive side, Bank Maybak Indonesia (BNII IJ) was up 35%, Godfrey Phillips India (INCO IJ) was up 29% and Dongkuk Steel (001230 KS) was up 21%. On the other side, Yeong Guan Energy Technology was down 14%,TV18 Broadcast was down 11% and Highwealth Construction was down 10%.

Summary

PDF Report available here: Download

 


What Worked Japan - 15 Jul 2016 - Incredible numbers / biggest weekly reversal I have ever seen

What Worked – I have been writing the “What Worked” for more than 7 years. Which means I have written it almost 400 times. Please don’t make fun of my life. I have never seen numbers like this week. Value and Beta bounced like I have never seen them bounce before. FY1 PE had a 60% IC. Beta had an unbelievable 65% IC. Please remember that a 100% IC means that the numbers are perfectly positively correlated. Low PE names that bounce hard were Sumitomo Mitsui Trust (8309) up 25%, Mazda (7261) up 24% and Dai-Ichi Life Insurance (8750) up 24%. Nintendo (7974) dominated the high beta names up 69% this week. But who thought that walking around catching Pokemon would be fun.

The price reversal this week was incredible. 12-month price momentum had a negative 78% IC. Names down over the last year bounced super hard. Minebea (6479) was up 23%, NTN (6472) was up 23% and Nomura Holdings (8604) was up 20%.  On the other side, High Sales growth names that have dominated in the recent months did not do well this week. Square Enix (9684) was down 4%, Nitori Holdings (9843) was down 4% and Cyber Agent (4751) was down 4%.

Who Moved – The good news is that a number of the names also moved up on strong volume. 53 names moved on volume this week. On the positive side, obviously Nintendo (7974) moved on volume. Other than Nintendo, Bank of Kyoto (8369) was up 40%, Ryosan (8140) was up 29% and NSK (6471) was up 25% on strong volume. On the other side, Kyushu Electric Power (9508) was down 6%, Square Enix was down 4% and Yamato Holdings was down 3% on strong volume. 

Summary

PDF Report available here: Download

 


What Worked Asia - 24 Jun 2016 - In Asia Size and Value benefited from all the turmoil

What Worked – Obviously all the markets were negatively affected by today’s news out of England. In China, there was a strong move into large-cap and low PBR names. Yanzhou Coal Mining was up 6% and China Shenhua Energy was up 6%. Low PBR names also did well in Hong Kong this week. Far East Consortium was up 9% and K Wah International Holdings was up 9%. In South Korea, value and large-cap names dominated. All the value factors were very strong.

However, that just means that Value and Large-cap names did not go down as much as the others. Poongsan Corp was up 2% and GS Engineering & Construction was up 3%. In India there was a good selloff in high Beta names and a slight move into Size. State Bank of Bikarner was down 12% and Indiabulls Real Estate was down 15%. In Singapore there was a very strong week over week reversal in momentum. City Developments was down 7% and Singapore Post was down 7%.

Who Moved – 139 names moved on volume this week. Volume spikes were well distributed across the region. However, a good portion of the volume spikes came in the Financial Sector. On the positive side, Thai Airways International was up 26%, Berjaya Philippines was up 18% and PT Matahari Putra was up 12%. On the other side, Millennium Pacific Group was down 33%, China Modern Dairy was down 13% and Stella International was down 12%.

Summary

PDF Download available here: Download


What Worked Japan - 24 Jun 2016 - Negative momentum names were hurt the most by Britain's news

What Worked – Obviously prices were hurt today by the news out of England. Names that took the biggest hit today were Sharp down 17%, Nippon Sheet Glass down 16% and Hitachi Capital down 16% (Hitachi Capital was actually up 13% until Thursday before being smashed down today). It was clear that the weaker names took the biggest hits today.

Names that were down over the last month went down more this week/today. Asics was down 16% this week, Seven Bank was down 12% (down 10% today)  and Kyowa Hakko Kirin was down 11% (down 9% today) this week. Low PE names were also hurt this week.  COLOPL was down 11%, Hitachi Zosen was down 11% and Dowa Holdings was down 11%. There was a slight move into high ROE names this week. K’S Holding was up 7%, Nitori Holdings was up 8% and CyberAgent was up 6% this week.

Who Moved – Only 19 names moved on volume this week. On the positive side, K’S Holdings was up 7%, Familymart was up 6% and UNY Group was up 6%. On the other side, Tokyo Gas was down 9%, Matsumotokiyoshi was down 8% and Kinden was down 7%.

Summary

PDF Report available here: Download

 


What Worked Asia - 17 Jun 2016 - Size and Beta were hurt in most markets this week

What Worked – In China this week there was a pretty good selloff in high Beta and large-cap names. China Oilfields Services was down 11% and Bank of China Limited was down 9%. In Hong Kong, there was also a good selloff in large-cap names this week with a move into high Sales growth and positive EPS revision names. BEP International was down 11% and Li & Fung was down 10%. In Singapore, there was a huge selloff in high Beta names with a rotation into high Dividend Yield names. CEFC was down 18% and Ezion was down 10%.

High Dividend Yield names that were up were SATS up 3% and Ascendas India up 1%. In South Korea, high ROIC names did well this week. SK Materials was up 9% and Korea Real Estate Investment was up 5%. In Taiwan and Thailand large cap names were hurt. Inotera Memories was down 11% and Total Access Communication was down 9%.

Who Moved – 103 names moved on volume this week. A good number of spikes came in South Korea and India. At the Sector level, 33% of the names were in the Financial Sector. On the positive side, Bracell Limited was up 59%, CrystalGenomics was up 46% and State Bank of Travancore was up 39%. On the other side, Goodbaby International was down 24%, Hanall Biopharma was down 18% and Plan B Media Public was down 14%.

 

Summary

PDF Download available here: Download


What Worked Japan - 17 Jun 2016 - No factor bias, just pretty much everyone went down this week

What Worked – With TOPIX down more than 6% and only 6 names in TOPIX 500 up this week I would have thought there would be more movement in the factors. There wasn’t. This week we saw a slight move out of Beta, but nothing like you would expect with a 6% decline.  MonotaRO was down 19%, COLOPL was down 15% and NIPPON PAINT HOLDINGS was down 14%.

On the other side, there was a slight move into Quality names. Tsuruha Holdings was up 7%, OMROM was up 4% and Unicharm was up 1%. These are 3 of the only 6 names that were up this week in TOPIX 500. All other factors were insignificant. This week’s drop was clearly an across the board decline.

Who Moved – 22 names moved on volume this week. On the positive side, there was only one name that was up on volume this week. OMROM was up 4%. Aside from the names above, ACOM was down 12%, Yokohama Rubber was down 12% and Sega Sammy was down 11%.

Summary

PDF Report available here: Download

 


What Worked Asia - 10 Jun 2016 - Size dominated in HK/China / Quality did not work in Korea

What Worked – In China, size and mean reversion mattered this week. Zall Development Group was up 13% and 3sBio was up 7%. Large Cap names have outperformed in China over the last month. To a lesser degree, Hong Kong was also all about Mkt-Cap size. L’Occitane International was up 18% and Vision Fam International was up 11%. South Korea saw a pretty good sell off in Quality and Growth names. CMG Pharma was down 11% and CJ HelloVision was down 9%.

High Beta names did well in Singapore this week. Yoma Strategic Holdings was up 7% and Sembcorp Marine was up 6% this week. Beta has done well in Singapore over the last 3 weeks. In India there was a clear rotation away from Quality and into low PBR names. AAG Energy was up 19% and Indian Bank was up 13%. PBR has not well in India since the middle of April this year. 

Who Moved – 106 names moved on volume this week. This week a good number of the spikes came in India, Indonesia and the Philippines. At the Sector level, almost half of the spikes came in the Health Technology and Finance Sectors. On the positive side, Chiang Mai Ram Medical was up 36%, Hanall Biopharma was up 39% and Bloomberry Resorts was up 20%. On the other side, IGG was down 11% Shunfeng International Clean was down 12% and Asia Aviation Public was down 7%. 

 Summary

PDF Download available here: Download


What Worked Japan - 10 Jun 2016 - Value continues to suffer and high ROE names benefited

What Worked – Overall,  Value did not do well this week, but more specifically low PBR names really took a hit. JTEKT Corp was down 9%, NTN Corp was down 8% and Mitsui Engineering & Shipbuilding was down 7%. PBR has not consistently worked well since May 2015. While Value names suffered this week, high ROE names did well. COLOPL was up 19%, Pigeon Corp was up 13% and Idemitsu Kosan was up 9%.

Since the middle of January this year, high ROE names have consistently outperformed.  For the second week in a row, high Beta names were beaten up. Japan Exchange was down 9%, Chugoku Bank was down 7% and NSK Ltd was down 7%. Looking at price momentum, names down over the last year continued to go down this week. Daicel Corp was down 9%, NSK was down 7% and Seven Bank was down 6%.

Who Moved – Only 14 names moved on volume this week. On the positive side, COLOPL was up 19% and Pigeon Corp was up 13%. On the other side, Japan Exchange was down 9% and Seven Bank was down 6%.

Summary

PDF Report available here: Download

 


What Worked Asia - 03 Jun 2016 - Value in South Korea and Slight move in high Beta names in China

What Worked – There was a selloff in Value names in South Korea this week. LG Uplus is down 9% and Lotte Confectionery is down 9% this week. Taiwan saw a good move in large-cap name. HTC Corp was up 18% and OBI Pharma was up 18%. In China there was a slight move into Value and high Beta names. China Longyuan Power Group was up 17% and Sinotruk Hong Kong was up 11%.

In Hong Kong there was a slight selloff in names that were up over the last month. Digital China Holdings was down 7% and Blue Sky Power Holding was down 4%. In Singapore, also names that were up over the last month went down this week. China Everbright Water was down 4% and CEFC International was down 4%. The Philippines was all about Size. Philippines Long Distance was up 14% and LT Group was up 10%.

Who Moved – 195 names moved on volume this week. A good number of those spikes coming in India and HK/China. On a sector basis, the Finance Sector dominated the spikes. On the positive side, Vision Fame International was up 38%, PT J Resources Asia was up 24% and Yeo Hiap Seng was up 17%. On the other side, Dongwon Industries was down 10%, Digital China Holdings was down 7% and Giga Solar Materials was down 8%. All on strong volume.

 Summary

PDF Download available here: Download