Custom Products Research - USDJPY Forecasting

USDJPY Forecasting

At the beginning of 2016, Custom Products forecast USDJPY of between ¥109.0 (2 equation model) and ¥114.4 (3 equation model) by December 31...

Custom Products Research - Fed Outlook 2017

Fed Outlook 2017

By some measures, the Fed has been behind the curve since mid-2014, in not gradually raising its policy rate. Granted the Fed chose to...

Custom Products Research - President Trump

President Trump Election

To date, US presidential election campaign spending on traditional formats (e.g.TV, radio, newspapers, billboards) have shown the Clinton...

Custom Products Research - Guidance Hugging

Guidance Hugging

We looked at the growing consensus hugging nature of analysts in Japan who increasingly base their forecasts on a +/-5% range within...

Custom Products Research - Unfunded Pensions

Unfunded Pensions

The beauty of pension accounting is that slight tweaks can make a large unfunded liability seemingly disappear or at the very least shrink...

Custom Products Research - Drugs & Markets

Drugs & Markets

The US Justice Department (DoJ) and the Drug Enforcement Agency’s (DEA) latest report on the trends of methamphetamine prices and purity...

Custom Products Research - Yearning For Yield

Yearning For Yield

Brexit Schmexit. In the uncertain TINA (There Is No Alternative) world we find ourselves, traditional strategies looking for dividend...

Custom Products Research - Velocity

Dire Straits for central bankers

Better to sit down. We will be entering some pretty bleak conclusions in this report. The world’s central banks have hit stall speed...

Custom Products Research - Brexit

Brexit: In and You’re Out, Out and You’re In

As the Brexit Referendum Campaign draws to a close, Custom Products decided to present an analysis of some of the main themes...

Custom Products Research - FY2016 Earnings Summary

FY2016 Earnings Summary

In this report we breakdown the just finished Earning Season by each sector and look at the new aggregate guidance for FY3/17...

Custom Products Research - Mitsubishi Motors

Pinocchio Motors

Here we go again. The story starved media gets its hooks into a has-been car maker with a mediocre presence and spinning it into the...

Custom Products Research - Ownership in Japan

Ownership in Japan

Is it any surprise that companies tend to perform better when board members (insiders) have a higher proportion of their remuneration linked...

Custom Products Research - Tesla Danger

Tempting Expeditiously Stupid Legal Action

Would any auto OEM CEO actively look to introduce such a function? Take a look at the picture above. Isn’t looking at something in psychedelic...

Custom Products Research - Fawning over Tesla

Fawning over Tesla

Do not get me wrong. Tesla’s CEO Elon Musk is a marketing genius. Not for one second do I think the feat of taking almost 200,000 Tesla 3 orders in...

Custom Products Research - Cap size or Capsize

Cap size or Capsize

A funny thing happened the other day on Facebook. A buy-sider was lamenting that the sell-side brokers don’t invite her out anymore. I joked to her...

Custom Products Research - Japanese Terrorism

Japanese Terrorism

Most foreigners won’t know her. Her name is Fusako Shigenobu. She looks harmless and sweet enough. The girl next door? She is actually the Japanese...

Custom Products Research - BOJ - Saved by (Sub) ZERO

BOJ - Saved by (Sub) Zero

Zero is a funny number. The numerical concept didn’t really evolve until 300 BC in Babylon. Even then, it was treated more as a space marker than a proper...

Custom Products Research - Bambi in the Boardroom

Bambi in the Boardroom

Sadly, in our discussions with the Financial Services Agency (FSA), the corporations themselves and recruitment agencies, the message is clear...

Custom Products Research - Appointing crisis managers in a shame culture

Appointing crisis managers in a shame culture

Describing Japan’s aversion to taking pre-emptive action before it is too late to the fate of the battleship Yamato may seem slightly obscure but....

Custom Products Research - SMAP Crackle Pop

SMAP Crackle Pop

Never truer words were written by Billy Joel in 1974 when he penned “The Entertainer” to describe the harsh realities of the entertainment...

Custom Products Research - Toshiba Below 1 Trillion

Toshiba Below 1 Trillion

I once joked soon after Lehman shock that Apple’s overnight move of 5% was the equivalent of the vanquished Toshiba market cap. Now Apple only...

Custom Products Research - US Reality Check

US Reality Check

What’s wrong with this picture? Though S&P actual earnings have fallen short of consensus forecasts from the previous 12 months (LTM)...

Custom Products Research - Japan's Misguided Matryoshka M&A

Japan's Misguided Matryoshka M&A

In the last 25 years, Intel Corp on its own has managed to make 31% more net income than all 20 of Japan’s largest tech companies...

Custom Products Research - The December Effect in Japan

Decemember Effect in Japan

The December effect is an interesting one as it is a little different than other anomalies in the market. For example, the run up...

Custom Products Research - Elections, Polls & Market Behaviour

Elections, Polls, Terror & Market Behaviour

MIT economist Jonathan Gruber’s candour shocked many when he said that Obamacare could only be passed into legislation if it was...

Custom Products Research - The future is always brighter

The future is always brighter

As a young Fundamental Analyst I was told that FY3 growth will always be positive. When I enquired why, my Senior Analyst explained because we never reach the...

Custom Products Research - Age shall not weary them

Age shall not weary them

Hidekichi Miyazaki, aka Golden Bolt, broke a Guinness World Record by running 100m at a spritely 105 years old in a time of 42.22 seconds in September this year...

Custom Products Research - The problem with profitability

The problem with profitability

‘Don’t let your struggle become your identity’ is a moniker for many a cause and sadly too many a corporate. In a former life as a sell-side analyst in the UK, I covered...

Custom Products Research - All you can EaTF

All you can EaTF

ETFs are hitting the market faster than the dim-sum trolley can circle the banquet hall. Charles Schwab, in the 12mths to July 2015, saw a 130-fold preference in ETF...

Custom Products Research - ETF Behaviour in Bear Markets

ETF Behaviour in Bear Markets

Assets invested in ETF/Ps comprise around $3 trillion globally. Put simply the new funds flowing into ETFs vs. traditional mutual funds is at a 100:1 ratio and...

Custom Products Research - Why The Fancy Multiples?

Why The Fancy Multiples?

When looking at the Topix sectors in the recent sell off, it is evident the relative valuations among the ‘defensive’ sectors are trading at significant premiums to...

Corporate Governance in Japan

Corporate Governance in Japan

Prime Minister Abe has thrust the Corporate Governance Code (the ‘Code’) on companies in Japan with the aim of bringing the country in line with best...

Custom Products Research - Hated By The Street - Jul 2015

Hated By The Street - Jul 2015

In Past cycles, we have seen a much closer correlation between overall share prices and sell-side analyst ratings. In the current cycle, however, we have seen...

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